2016 Tropical Weather - Vintage Mustang Forums

 
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post #1 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-22-2016, 07:03 PM Thread Starter
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2016 Tropical Weather

Need to keep an eye on the tropics. US computer model puts 99L over the Bahama's on Sunday as a undeveloped disturbance. The EURO computer model puts 99L over the Bahama's on Sunday as a developed disturbance. Most anything can happen this far out, so please keep informed.

This is a 5 day forecast and the size and direction of the cone may still take on a different path and size.


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post #2 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-22-2016, 08:39 PM
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And the one behind (90 I think) is farther south which will push it into the Gulf too.

I heard today that La Nina has diminished in the Pacific and that it has been shielding us in the Gulf area to a degree. They said that with La Nina weakening, expect more of the storms to head further west before steering north and into the Gulf of Mexico. That's all LA needs is a tropical storm or hurricane to add to their misery.
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post #3 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-22-2016, 09:27 PM Thread Starter
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Fiona and 90L are both currently expected to curve to the north and not affect the US coast.

99L


90L

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post #4 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-27-2016, 10:11 PM Thread Starter
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Its looking like South Florida had dodged the bullet with this one, but once it gets out into the Gulf, they are still not sure where its going or how strong it will be. They are saying, that starting tonight, I should start seeing some rain from the storm. They are saying it will at the very least be a rain event of 3-7". I am keeping track of the storm via a blog of amature meterologists and they are saying that right now (about 10pm Sat night) that rotation is improving and the pressure is dropping (1007mb). South Florida, West Florida and those along the Gulf Coast need to keep alert for the next couple of days still.


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Last edited by 69GT350H; 08-27-2016 at 10:15 PM. Reason: Added graphic of computer model tracks.
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post #5 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-28-2016, 05:16 AM
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i have new tarp to put over the 65 conv...... clear sky this am stars out ...
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post #6 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-28-2016, 12:30 PM Thread Starter
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What happened to our wet Sunday from 99L? Well, Even though the "center" is approaching from the SE, the shear is destroying any convection associated with it and thus Florida is currently on the dry side of the system. As the disorganized "center" passes Fla it will drag the convection behind it, thus bringing squally weather and rain later this evening.

In the photo, you can see the weather system pushing down sheering 99L and keeping the wet weather away.


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post #7 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-28-2016, 04:25 PM
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Current predictions don't look great for us on the Panhandle. I'm supposed to be flying out on Weds morning early. Hope it clears up quickly and doesn't strengthen too much

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post #8 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-28-2016, 05:13 PM
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HI Dave where are you going flyboy washington ?
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post #9 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-28-2016, 05:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hughnews1 View Post
HI Dave where are you going flyboy washington ?
California, then onto Australia

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post #10 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-28-2016, 11:46 PM Thread Starter
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Sunday, August 28, 2016
99-L was upgraded to TD 9 this afternoon despite having a ragged appearance on satellite loops. It has a much better appearance on the composite radar loop and NHC is expecting it to become a named storm on Monday. TD 9 is fighting northerly wind shear that is not allowing T-Storms to rotate around its center. Half of the circulation is still over Cuba so little, if any, strengthening is expected until late Monday or Tuesday. As it drifts farther to the west, wind shear should weaken allowing for TS Hermine or Ian to be named (depending on the system off the Carolina coast.) RIGHT NOW, there is a well-defined UPPER low over the western Gulf. IF TD 9 gets stronger, it would be picked up and turn to the north on Late Tuesday or Wednesday. IF it stays weak, it could keep going westward never affecting the northern Gulf. That would be the best scenario for us. However, both the Euro & GFS models are bringing this system to the north & then NE making landfall in north central FLORIDA on Thursday into Friday. That track would also minimize any impacts to SE LA/MS. BUT, this remains a weak system…computer models do not handle weak systems very well…models have been WRONG all week…some models are predicting a stronger storm in the Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame.

Retired meteorologist and New Orleans broadcast icon, Bob Breck at 8:12 PM

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post #11 of 12 (permalink) Old 08-29-2016, 05:05 AM
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D'day mate ... i know you will be looking for classic mustangs .. down there ..
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post #12 of 12 (permalink) Old 09-01-2016, 06:20 PM Thread Starter
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Hurricane Hermine

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