Sunday, August 28, 2016
99-L was upgraded to TD 9 this afternoon despite having a ragged appearance on satellite loops. It has a much better appearance on the composite radar loop and NHC is expecting it to become a named storm on Monday. TD 9 is fighting northerly wind shear that is not allowing T-Storms to rotate around its center. Half of the circulation is still over Cuba so little, if any, strengthening is expected until late Monday or Tuesday. As it drifts farther to the west, wind shear should weaken allowing for TS Hermine or Ian to be named (depending on the system off the Carolina coast.) RIGHT NOW, there is a well-defined UPPER low over the western Gulf. IF TD 9 gets stronger, it would be picked up and turn to the north on Late Tuesday or Wednesday. IF it stays weak, it could keep going westward never affecting the northern Gulf. That would be the best scenario for us. However, both the Euro & GFS models are bringing this system to the north & then NE making landfall in north central FLORIDA on Thursday into Friday. That track would also minimize any impacts to SE LA/MS. BUT, this remains a weak system…computer models do not handle weak systems very well…models have been WRONG all week…some models are predicting a stronger storm in the Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame.
Retired meteorologist and New Orleans broadcast icon, Bob Breck at 8:12 PM